Egypt reportedly weighing a third order for 24 Rafales

Egypt is reportedly preparing to order 24 additional Rafale fighters from Dassault Aviation, according to La Tribune. Such a contract would bring the Egyptian fleet to 78 aircraft and confirm Cairo as the Rafale’s largest export customer.

The report has so far been confirmed neither by the manufacturer, nor by France’s Directorate General of Armaments, nor by the Egyptian Ministry of Defence. Every pick-up published since Monday traces back to the same source. A market note issued on 1 September refers to Egypt “preparing a request” for 24 aircraft, wording that would place the file at the requirement-definition stage rather than in contract negotiation.

Cairo signed its first contract in February 2015, covering 24 aircraft delivered through 2019 as part of a package worth roughly €5.2 billion that also included a FREMM frigate and MBDA munitions. A second contract for 30 aircraft, valued at around €4 billion, came into force in November 2021. Some thirty airframes from that second tranche are understood to have been accepted to date, with deliveries due to conclude this year. As the 2021 order has not yet been completed, a third contract would come before the previous one closes.

The main obstacle would be financial. Egypt’s first two acquisitions rest on roughly ten-year borrowing backed by a French state guarantee, through public credit insurance that constitutes an off-balance-sheet commitment for the Treasury. In 2017, the option on twelve additional aircraft attached to the 2015 contract ran aground on the finance ministry’s reservations about the payment terms Cairo was seeking. It was never exercised. Given the state of Egyptian external debt, the decision would be taken in Bercy rather than at Saint-Cloud.

Two technical unknowns remain. The first concerns the standard: the 54 aircraft on order are at F3-R standard, with a prospective F4.2 retrofit, and a new batch could target the F4 directly. The second concerns industrial capacity at the Mérignac line, already committed to Indian, Indonesian and Serbian orders as well as to the re-equipment of the French forces. A contract signed in 2026 would in all likelihood not translate into deliveries before the start of the next decade.

Confirmation from an Egyptian source, or a statement from Dassault Aviation, remains necessary to establish that this negotiation is real.

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